The model cannot show where the additional value ultimately accumulates or whether it becomes profit. It can, however, show why the Gasoline Pool Working Residual cannot be interpreted independently of the wider refinery and petrochemical system.

This Nerd Cheat Sheet outlines the calculation methodology used in the model of contributors to the German gasoline price.

The Working Residual is not equivalent to profit. Yet the July 2026 German E10 pump-price spike exceeded the corresponding increase during the 2022 disruption. What changed — and where did the additional value go?

In early March 2026, petrol-price surges appeared only days after the opening strikes on Iran, even though physical supply chains should have lagged behind. This investigation asks where the added value went — and whether motorists and the state were left carrying the cost.